Title
   Dire warning Australia will likely be dragged into a WAR with China over Taiwan as Beijing's autocrat leader vows to annex the island in his lifetime and the US 'has to respond'
Subtitle
  Panel of experts say war over Taiwan with China likely in the next five to 10 years
Date
  8 August 2021
Register Date
  2021-08-09
Count
  10

   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Dire warning Australia will likely be dragged into a WAR with
China over Taiwan as Beijing's autocrat leader vows to annex the
island in his lifetime and the US 'has to respond'

By LEVI PARSONS FOR DAILY MAIL AUSTRALIA
PUBLISHED: 8 August 2021

A military conflict is 'likely' to erupt over the disputed island
of Taiwan in the next five to 10 years as China's military
becomes increasingly confident it can fend off a response from
western powers like Australia and the US, a panel of Asian
foreign policy experts has warned.

President Xi Jinping and other Communist party loyalists have
already voiced their ambitions of annexing the democratic US and
Japan-backed island, stating there is 'no room for any form of
Taiwan independence'.

But a Stanford Professor says such an aggressive play from the
belligerent state would '100 per cent' see the US get involved,
prompting Australian armed forces to also heed the call of war.

A military conflict is 'likely' to erupt over the disputed island
of Taiwan in the next five to 10 years, experts fear. Pictured:
Australian Army soldiers conduct urban close combat clearances
during Exercise Talisman Sabre 2021 at Townsville Field Training
Area, Queensland +12
A military conflict is 'likely' to erupt over the disputed island
of Taiwan in the next five to 10 years, experts fear. Pictured:
Australian Army soldiers conduct urban close combat clearances
during Exercise Talisman Sabre 2021 at Townsville Field Training
Area, Queensland

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen (pictured) has remained staunch
in the face of Chinese aggression - with many nations now at
loggerheads with the communist superpower +12
Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen (pictured) has remained staunch
in the face of Chinese aggression - with many nations now at
loggerheads with the communist superpower

Is Taiwan a country or a part of China?
Taiwanese soldiers hoist the flag of Taiwan in Taipei on May 10.
China considers Taiwan as a part of its territory, but many
Taiwanese people want the island to be independent +12
Taiwanese soldiers hoist the flag of Taiwan in Taipei on May 10.
China considers Taiwan as a part of its territory, but many
Taiwanese people want the island to be independent

China and Taiwan have a long-standing dispute over the island's
sovereignty.

China considers Taiwan as a part of its territory, more precisely
a province, but many Taiwanese want the island to be independent.

From 1683 to 1895, Taiwan was ruled by China's Qing dynasty.
After Japan claimed its victory in the First Sino-Japanese War,
the Qing government forced to cede Taiwan to Japan.

The island was under the Republic of China's ruling after World
War II, with the consent of its allies the US and UK.

The leader of the Chinese Nationalist Party, Chiang Kai-shek,
fled to Taiwan in 1949 and established his government after
losing the Civil War to the Communist Party and its leader Mao
Zedong.

Chiang's son continued to rule Taiwan after his father and began
democratising Taiwan.

In 1980, China put forward a formula called 'one country, two
systems', under which Taiwan would be given significant autonomy
if it accepted Chinese reunification. Taiwan rejected the offer.

Taiwan today, with its own constitution and democratically-
elected leaders, is widely accepted in the West as an independent
state. But its political status remains unclear.


'There is a lot of discussion about what Chinese use of force
would look like,' Dr Oriana Skylar Mastro of the Freeman Spogli
Institute for International Studies at Stanford University in the
US told a panel of Australian experts from La Trobe University.

'A lot of people have argued that the Chinese prefer grey zone,
coercion, political warfare, all that type of stuff. And I
completely agree – except with Taiwan' said Dr Mastro.

'You're not going to get full political control of Taiwan through
those methods.

'The people of Taiwan are not going to voluntarily unify with the
Chinese mainland without Chinese boots on the ground on the
island.'

China's military dwarfs Australia's with less power, tanks,
fighters and guns...
China demands Australia support its policy of annexing Taiwan if
it wants end to...

That's why Dr Mastro believes a 'full-scale amphibious landing'
is imminent in the next six years.

'Some people in Australia have questioned what the US would do -
the US is 100 per cent going to fight this war,' she said.

'But the big issue is the balance of power has shifted and the
reason they might go for this landing is because they think they
could win... even if the US intervenes.'

Shocking disparities between Australia and China's military power
shows we would struggle in a war, amid fears that tensions both
nations are nearing tipping point +12
Shocking disparities between Australia and China's military power
shows we would struggle in a war, amid fears that tensions both
nations are nearing tipping point

President Xi Jinping and other Communist party loyalists have
already voiced their ambitions of annexing the democratic US and
Japan-backed island. Pictured: People's Liberation Army tanks are
seen in Beijing's Tiananmen Square during a National Day parade
celebrating the 50th anniversary of the People's Republic of
China +12
President Xi Jinping and other Communist party loyalists have
already voiced their ambitions of annexing the democratic US and
Japan-backed island. Pictured: People's Liberation Army tanks are
seen in Beijing's Tiananmen Square during a National Day parade
celebrating the 50th anniversary of the People's Republic of
China

Pictured: The USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115) is seen firing the 5-
inch gun for Naval Surface Fire Support during Exercise Talisman
Sabre 2021 in Queensland +12
Pictured: The USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115) is seen firing the 5-
inch gun for Naval Surface Fire Support during Exercise Talisman
Sabre 2021 in Queensland

Dr Mastro explained that while the US military is 'far superior'
it is possible that the People's Liberation Army could move
across the 130km strait before the US has time to respond.

Dr Nick Bisley, the dean of the School of Humanities and Social
Sciences at La Trobe University in Australia said the argument
that a conflict could break out in five to 10 years is
'alarmingly compelling'.

'Xi Jinping has made a very public and very clear signal that
says Taiwan is not a problem that will be passed down to the next
generation,' Professor Bisley said.

'Now, of course, he doesn't have term limits. He'll be there for
a long while. We don't know what the exact time frame is. But
there does seem to be one.

'So we're not on the precipice of great-power conflict in the way
that we were in 1914. But we're a lot closer to that than we
were.'

Fellow China watcher Guy Boekenstein, who is a Fellow at the
Northern Australia Asia Society, said such a conflict may not be
a full-scale traditional war, but tension could quickly boil over
with a 'strategic miscalculation' that would almost certainly see
Australia get dragged into the conflict to support the US.

Dr Nick Bisley, the dean of the School of Humanities and Social
Sciences at La Trobe University in Australia said the argument
that a conflict could break out in five to 10 years is
'alarmingly compelling'. Pictured: Soldiers perform military
exercises at the Academy of Armored Forces Engineering of the PLA
on July 22, 2014 in Beijing +12
Dr Nick Bisley, the dean of the School of Humanities and Social
Sciences at La Trobe University in Australia said the argument
that a conflict could break out in five to 10 years is
'alarmingly compelling'. Pictured: Soldiers perform military
exercises at the Academy of Armored Forces Engineering of the PLA
on July 22, 2014 in Beijing

China experts believe Xi Jinping (pictured) will eventually moves
to annex Taiwan +12
Such a push would likely see Scott Morrison (pictured) back the
US and respond with military action +12
China experts believe that if Xi Jinping (left) moves to annex
Taiwan, Scott Morrison (right) will back the US and respond with
military action

The rest of the region is already on edge as China attempts to
assert its totalitarian power by ramping up tensions with its
neighbours.

It the past few years Beijing has eroding political independence
in nearby Hong Kong, carried out a bloody border scuffle against
India and continued to terrorise its oppressed Muslim population
in Xinjiang by detaining up to a million Uighurs in 're-education
camps'.

China also continues to encroach on Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Vietnam, and Brunei in the South China Sea as it
builds up military islands in contravention of international law.

'If we look realistically at the Australian Defence Force and our
ability to project power or defend Australia independently, you
know, we shouldn't be kidding ourselves,' Mr Boekenstein said.

'We've got a very small but very capable military. But alliances
and partnerships will always fundamentally underpin our defence
and security.'

Taiwan, backed by the US and Japan, has endured a longstanding
conflict with Beijing since a separate government was established
on the island following the Chinese Civil War in 1949.

Taiwan's residents are more on edge than ever after watching the
brutal repression of the independence movement in nearby Hong
Kong.

Taiwan has democratically-elected leaders and fiercely opposes
reunification and the totalitarian rule of Beijing.

But Communist Party rhetoric is growing more aggressive when it
comes to annexing the island.

The island nation remains an important ally of western democratic
countries for its close proximity to China and because it
produces a significant supply of semiconductor microchips at a
time when there is a major global shortage.

Pictured: Royal Australian Soldiers from 2nd Battalion, The Royal
Australian Regiment, conduct reconnaissance during Exercise
Talisman Sabre 19 at Stanage Bay, Queensland +12
Pictured: Royal Australian Soldiers from 2nd Battalion, The Royal
Australian Regiment, conduct reconnaissance during Exercise
Talisman Sabre 19 at Stanage Bay, Queensland

Pressure is mounting on Australia and fellow 'Quad' members -
Japan, India and the US - to keep Beijing's forces at bay as
tensions escalate.

Meanwhile Australia's relationship with its biggest trading
partner began to drastically deteriorate in April last year when
Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry
into the origins of coronavirus, which first appeared in Wuhan at
the end of 2019.

The plea for transparency over Covid-19 infuriated the Communist
Party who retaliated by imposing arbitrary bans and tariffs on
billions of dollars worth of Australian goods including barley,
wine, cotton, seafood, beef, copper, and coal.